{"id":121720,"date":"2024-06-06T04:20:39","date_gmt":"2024-06-06T09:20:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.globaltrademag.com\/?p=121720"},"modified":"2024-06-06T07:25:22","modified_gmt":"2024-06-06T12:25:22","slug":"container-price-bubble-expected-to-burst-in-h2-2024-amid-shaky-consumer-confidence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.globaltrademag.com\/container-price-bubble-expected-to-burst-in-h2-2024-amid-shaky-consumer-confidence\/","title":{"rendered":"Container Price Bubble Expected to Burst in H2 2024 Amid Shaky Consumer Confidence"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b><\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.container-xchange.com\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Container xChange<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> today unveiled its June container market forecaster, revealing trends and insights that are shaping the global container shipping market. The forecaster highlights the dramatic rise in container prices in China recently, which surged by 45% in May. Meanwhile, container prices have remained relatively stable in the US and Europe.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Read also: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.globaltrademag.com\/ocean-freight-container-rates-soar-amid-global-supply-chain-disruptions\/\">Ocean Freight Container Rates Soar Amid Global Supply Chain Disruptions<\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Key findings also include insights into the impact of port congestion and carrier network changes on market dynamics, the cautious restocking behavior of US retailers, and the year-to-date growth in inbound TEUs at major US ports.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>China\u2019s<\/b> <b>volatile container prices surge amid early peak season<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.container-xchange.com\/analytical-pieces\/container-xchange-china-market-update-may-2024\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">container trading market in China<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> has been highly volatile throughout the month of May, with container prices rising beyond expectations. Average container prices for 40 ft high cube cargo-worthy containers across key ports in China <\/span><b>rose by 45% in May<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, from $2240 in April to $3250 in May 2024. These were around $1698 in November 2023 and around $7178 in September 2021 (at the height of the Covid boom).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"121721\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.globaltrademag.com\/container-price-bubble-expected-to-burst-in-h2-2024-amid-shaky-consumer-confidence\/chart-11\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-11.png?fit=1076%2C614&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1076,614\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"chart 11\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-11.png?fit=300%2C171&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-11.png?fit=474%2C271&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-121721\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-11.png?resize=428%2C244&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"global trade container price\" width=\"428\" height=\"244\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-11.png?resize=300%2C171&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-11.png?resize=573%2C327&amp;ssl=1 573w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-11.png?resize=768%2C438&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-11.png?w=1076&amp;ssl=1 1076w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-11.png?w=948&amp;ssl=1 948w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 428px) 100vw, 428px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Chart 1: Average container price trends across key ports in China for 40 ft High cube cargo-worthy containers<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><b>Capacity shortage and unexpected demand increase are main drivers of price surge\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The surge in container prices is driven by a significant lack of capacity (containers and vessels) that coincides with an unexpected increase in demand for capacity.<\/span><\/p>\n<!-- shortcode [asyncjs] -->\n        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">if (!window.AdButler) {\n                (function () {\n                    var s = document.createElement(\"script\");\n                    s.async = true;\n                    s.type = \"text\/javascript\";\n                    s.src = 'https:\/\/servedbyadbutler.com\/app.js';\n                    var n = document.getElementsByTagName(\"script\")[0];\n                    n.parentNode.insertBefore(s, n);\n                }());\n            }<\/script>\n        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">\n            var AdButler = AdButler || {};\n            AdButler.ads = AdButler.ads || [];\n            var abkw = window.abkw || '';\n            var plc373459 = window.plc373459 || 0;\n            document.write('<' + 'div id=\"placement_373459_' + plc373459+ '\"><\/' + 'div>');\n            AdButler.ads.push({\n                handler: function (opt) {\n                    AdButler.register(168070,373459, [300,250], 'placement_373459_' + opt.place, opt);\n                },\n                opt: {\n                    place: plc373459++,\n                    keywords: abkw ,\n                    domain: 'servedbyadbutler.com'\n                }\n            });\n        <\/script>\n        \n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Firstly, capacity is low because of Red Sea diversions stretching carriers\u2019 networks thin\u2014essentially carriers wanting to maintain weekly sailings have to deploy additional vessels on their Asia-Europe loops. This decreases the margin for error\u2014making the management of unexpected disruptions very challenging.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Moreover, the diversions and the subsequent \u201crebalancing\u201d of carrier networks have led to downstream disruptions like port congestion as short-term changes in carrier networks and &#8220;vessel bunching&#8221; have led to some ports facing spikes in throughput. Similar to what can be expected on a highway, throughput spikes then lead to traffic jams\u2014here of vessels and containers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Secondly, we have seen an unexpected increase in demand for capacity\u2014as shippers are pulling shipments forward in order to avoid the uncertainty of future disruptions in the rest of the 2024.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>\u201cShippers are pulling shipment dates forward<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, <\/span><b>resulting in a temporary demand for shipping capacity<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. This is reflected in higher throughput volumes, despite underlying consumer demand and factory orders being weak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For instance, consumer spending in the US increased by only 2% in the first quarter of 2024, below the advance estimate of 2.5% and the lowest increase in three quarters. Also, retail inventories excluding autos in the US increased by only 0.3% month-over-month in April 2024, following a 0.4% decline in March 2024, indicating only cautious restocking by retailers. Additionally, new orders for manufactured goods in April rose by $4.3 billion, a 0.7% increase to $588.2 billion, while shipments increased by $5.9 billion or 1% to $590.2 billion, signaling robust demand in the shipping and container logistics market.\u201d <\/span><b>Roeloffs<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> explained.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But contrary to the weak underlying structural demand side, the year-to-date container TEUs comparison from 2024 to 2023 shows an average 18% increase in inbound TEUs at major US ports.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"121722\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.globaltrademag.com\/container-price-bubble-expected-to-burst-in-h2-2024-amid-shaky-consumer-confidence\/table-1\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/table-1.png?fit=1600%2C1034&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1600,1034\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"table 1\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/table-1.png?fit=300%2C194&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/table-1.png?fit=474%2C306&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-121722\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/table-1.png?resize=459%2C297&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"global trade container price\" width=\"459\" height=\"297\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/table-1.png?resize=300%2C194&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/table-1.png?resize=506%2C327&amp;ssl=1 506w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/table-1.png?resize=768%2C496&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/table-1.png?resize=1536%2C993&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/table-1.png?resize=122%2C79&amp;ssl=1 122w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/table-1.png?w=1600&amp;ssl=1 1600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/table-1.png?w=948&amp;ssl=1 948w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/table-1.png?w=1422&amp;ssl=1 1422w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 459px) 100vw, 459px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Table 1: Year-on-Year Growth of Inbound TEUs at Key US Ports (January-April)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Key US ports such as Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Port of Vancouver reported significant year-on-year growth rates, ranging from 28.1% to 22.37%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Short-term Price Bubble<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As we monitor the market closely, it\u2019s evident that the<\/span> <b>current spike in container prices is not sustainable in the long term, as it is not backed by strong underlying demand<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Concerns over labor markets and high-interest rates imply that <\/span><b>consumers are likely to reduce spending<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which could lead to a decline in demand for goods and, consequently, a reduction in shipping volumes in the near term, unless the demand revival becomes stronger and the supply capacity soak up intensifies.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Industry Sentiment remains volatile<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Industry participants surveyed during May 2024 overwhelmingly indicated expectations of higher container price hikes. The Container Price Sentiment Index (xCPSI) exhibited significant volatility in its readings, reflecting the challenges arising from the Iran-Israel conflict, evolving geopolitical economic trade relationships, and persistent climatic changes causing droughts, compelling businesses to fortify their supply chains.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"121723\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.globaltrademag.com\/container-price-bubble-expected-to-burst-in-h2-2024-amid-shaky-consumer-confidence\/chart-12\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-12.png?fit=1076%2C476&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1076,476\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"chart 12\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-12.png?fit=300%2C133&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-12.png?fit=474%2C210&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-121723\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-12.png?resize=462%2C205&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"global trade container price\" width=\"462\" height=\"205\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-12.png?resize=300%2C133&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-12.png?resize=739%2C327&amp;ssl=1 739w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-12.png?resize=768%2C340&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-12.png?w=1076&amp;ssl=1 1076w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-12.png?w=948&amp;ssl=1 948w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 462px) 100vw, 462px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Chart 2: xCPSI, Container Price Sentiment Index as on 4 June 2024, by Container xChange<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"121724\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.globaltrademag.com\/container-price-bubble-expected-to-burst-in-h2-2024-amid-shaky-consumer-confidence\/chart-13\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-13.png?fit=1600%2C690&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1600,690\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"chart 13\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-13.png?fit=300%2C129&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-13.png?fit=474%2C204&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-121724\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-13.png?resize=451%2C194&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"451\" height=\"194\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-13.png?resize=300%2C129&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-13.png?resize=758%2C327&amp;ssl=1 758w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-13.png?resize=768%2C331&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-13.png?resize=1536%2C662&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-13.png?w=1600&amp;ssl=1 1600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-13.png?w=948&amp;ssl=1 948w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.globaltrademag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/chart-13.png?w=1422&amp;ssl=1 1422w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 451px) 100vw, 451px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Chart 3: Monthly comparison of xCPSI survey results (Apri-May) 2024, by Container xChange<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Market Outlook<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;Given these factors, we expect that the elevated container prices we&#8217;ve seen in recent months may not be sustainable,&#8221; shared <\/span><b>Christian Roeloffs, co-founder and CEO of Container xChange<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. &#8220;As the initial rush to restock inventories subsides and the real demand from consumers and businesses remains flat, we anticipate a stabilization or even a decline in container prices in the mid-term. The market is showing signs of volatility driven by short-term factors, rather than a sustained increase in demand.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The underlying macroeconomic indicators suggest a more <\/span><b>tempered outlook for the coming months<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Consumer spending growth remains sluggish, and retail inventories are only modestly increasing. Additionally, the subdued consumer sentiment reflects ongoing concerns about labor markets and inflation, which are likely to dampen consumer demand further.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Visit <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.container-xchange.com\/market-intelligence-hub\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Container xChange Market Intelligence Hub<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for similar analysis and reports.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Container xChange today unveiled its June container market forecaster, revealing trends and insights that are shaping the global container shipping&#8230; <a class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.globaltrademag.com\/container-price-bubble-expected-to-burst-in-h2-2024-amid-shaky-consumer-confidence\/\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1853,"featured_media":121690,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"footnotes":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[3855,3850,3995,119],"tags":[6844,11878,4072,423,52],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.6 (Yoast SEO v22.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Container Price Bubble Expected to Burst in H2 2024 Amid Shaky Consumer Confidence - Global Trade Magazine<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Industry participants surveyed during May 2024 overwhelmingly indicated expectations of higher container price hikes. 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